I'm sure you see plenty of them in print material and/or hear them on the news so, in an effort to not disappoint anyone, here are some more predictions for 2011.

In an earlier post titled Top 10 Green Building Trends For The Upcoming Year (I would link back to it but somehow the entire post got deleted once I started this one), Jerry Yudelson outlined 10 trends that he thought would be the next fad in green building. I recently came across another perspective by Jim Simcoe of The Bigger Pockets Blog and I thought I would share his as well. His 6 green real estate predictions  also seemed to apply more to the residential market and those who may be consumers in that market. His 6 predictions are below along with my 'take' on each of them.

1. Green value will replace green hype. As I sit hear and ponder that statement I cant help but think of all the builders, consumers, reporters and real estate agents (oh, wait, there are no other certified green agents in the Quad City market) who often refer to green elements in homes as selling points but rarely elaborate as to what the long term benefits are or what the return on investment (ROI) is. I personally think there will soon be a requirement to disclose to clients buying an efficient, sustainable home what the cost savings will be on the green elements they chose to put in the house. Even if its not a requirement, why not do it to begin with? This is where the value will replace the hype. 

2. Energy Star Overtakes LEED certification. Good! LEED is rather complex, at least to those consumers who are fairly new to the green building movement. I can see the benefits of LEED certification on commercial buildings but not as much on residential new construction. Energy Star is easy to understand and can often times come with a score from 1-100 that shows how efficient the home is. And I love Jim's reference to LEED as the clunky old PC running Windows 3.1 vs. Energy Star who is the iPad.

3. Return on investment (ROI) becomes easier to calculate. Like I mentioned above, if we cant predict the future savings of a green element, or at least a very close percentage, what is the point? The consumer needs to know why the cost for this particular product is slightly higher than the non-efficient (non Energy Star rated) one. Gone are the days when we can simply say this home is 15-90% [exaggurating] more efficient than the others.

4. Opportunity to go green is becoming more of an obligation. Jim goes on to say that consumers and the government are holding those who are implementing green features more accountable. In other words, If your going green you had better do it right...because big brother will be watching. Hence the Energy Star ratings.

5. Green products will be cheaper and more abundant. I hope this is true but, unfortunately demand ultimately prices the product. Take Solar for example. I cant think of one local Iowa or Illinois Quad City company who specializes in solar power installation. There are probably dozens in the larger east and west coast and southern markets. Therefore, to get solar panels installed here in Davenport, IA will undoubtedly cost more compared to the larger markets. This holds true for many green elements. However, If we can fulfill #3 (ROI calculation), we can overcome the initial sticker shock.

6. The number of buyers who understand the importance of green homes will double compared to 2010. Jim indicates that approximately 40% of buyer/renters saw the advantage of going green and were willing to pay a premium for that. His number is based off his own personal observation and I would have to say that number in the Quad Cities is more like 15-20% based off my experience. Either way, I truly hope that figure, what ever it is in your market, does in fact double. Everything goes back to providing the consumer a thorough explanation of actual cost savings over a period of time.